Former Launch Officer on Trump’s Potential for Nuclear First Strike

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John Noonan is a defense analyst and former United States Air Force officer who performed duties as a Minuteman III launch officer. In a nuclear war, he would have been one of the people turning the keys to end civilization as we know it. As a result, his series of tweets analyzing Donald Trump’s potential attitude toward using nuclear weapons carry a certain moral weight not available to most discussions on the matter.

Noonan writes in response to anonymous allegations reported by Joe Scarborough that Trump asked a foreign policy expert “three times,” “if we have [nuclear weapons], why can’t we use them?” The Trump campaign has denied Scarborough’s statement, saying, “There is no truth to this [story].”

Enter Noonan’s series of tweets, which analyze the consequences of such a shift in nuclear weapons use philosophy, if true.

1. I cant get this in one tweet. So bear with me as I air some laundry here on Scarborough's claim Trump's interested in nuclear First Use

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

Noonan tells those who are just tuning in (like myself) that he has significant experience with nuclear weapons.

2. Pulled 300 nuclear alerts, 100 ft under the Wyoming turf. Job is serious and full of serious people.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

3. When we went into ICBM training, we went through a battery of tests and interviews. Are you sane? Are you willing to turn your key?

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

4. I see how those might sound at odds.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

They do sound at odds, but the idea is:

1. You cannot be unstable. There must be no possibility that you will go rogue and conspire to use these weapons without authorization.
2. You must be willing to follow the order to use them, when given, without hesitation.

5. But the whole idea behind nuclear deterrence is that you don't use the damn things. So I thought the mission credible and worthy.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

6. There are a hell of a lot of bad actors out there who have nukes. They are restrained only by our ability to instantly lay waste to them.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

7. The nuke triad, which Trump doesn't have a clue about, has been the single greatest contributor to global peace for decades. You heard me

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

The nuclear triad is the combination of land, air, and sea based nuclear weapons. Briefly, if any two of these elements are eliminated, based solely on the strength of the remaining leg, a nuclear response could destroy the attacker. Recall that this strategy was developed during the Cold War against a primarily Soviet opponent. In the submarine force, we said that even if one ballistic missile submarine was left, it would carry enough nuclear warheads (288) to wipe out the USSR.

8. I dont know if Scarborough is telling whole truth here. Anonymous sources suck. BUT… if he is… buckle the hell up.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

9. Because Trump would be undoing 6 decades of proven deterrence theory. The purpose of nukes is that they are never used. Trump disagrees?

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

10. This would be the single greatest strategic shift in US national security in decades. In a Trump Presidency, our foreign policy

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

11. ….would be this. "Leave our alliances, fall back on a nuclear first use policy." Does he understand just how F'ing dangerous that is?

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

12. But what really concerns me, as a former nuke guy, is the idea of a narcissist walking around with nuclear authenticators.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

13. I could sit 100ft underground, on alert, knowing that the POTUS would not make me do my duty — not unless it was absolute last resort

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

14. But imagine having to turn launch keys not knowing if we were under attack or if it was b/c foreign leader said a mean thing on twitter

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

15. The power is there to kill millions. Permanently alter the geopolitical landscape. It is a sacred, sobering responsibility.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

16. Idea that nukes would be used, say over Raqqa or Mosul, simply because we have no more allies and it's a simple, easy fix is nauseating

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

17. Simply signaling that you're open to using strategic weapons as a tactical solution rewrites the rule book. Russia, China, others will

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

18. respond. Nuclear deterrence is about balance. Trump is an elephant jumping up and down on one side of the scale. So damn dangerous.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

19. But geopolitics aside, I can't get my mind off the young officers on nuke alert right now. Wondering if they'll soon answer to a madman.

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

20. And be asked to do a duty that should morally be asked of no human being, ever. //end

— John Noonan (@noonanjo) August 3, 2016

I’ll conclude by returning to Scarborough’s initial claim.

Scarborough made the Trump comments 52 seconds into an interview with former Director of Central Intelligence and ex-National Security Agency Director Michael Hayden.

Scarborough then asked a hypothetical question to Hayden about how quickly nuclear weapons could be deployed if a president were to give approval.

“It’s scenario dependent, but the system is designed for speed and decisiveness. It’s not designed to debate the decision,” Hayden said.

   

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